Foster Center, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS61 KBOX 081705
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
105 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England
this morning. This front will bring passing scattered showers,
along with decreasing cloud cover and increasingly windy
conditions as we move into the afternoon. Unseasonably cold
temperatures are expected tonight. Sunny and dry weather
expected for Wednesday with continued below average
temperatures. Warming up toward the end of the week, but turning
unsettled again with showers at times, which will likely linger
through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Gusty to strong WNW wind gusts then develop by afternoon, starting
  to peak around mid to late this afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph in
  most of northern MA, with 35-45 mph gusts for CT and RI.

Details:

The main story then lies behind the front as we move into the
afternoon hours. Strong cold advection to steepen lapse rates
and allowing for stratus to disperse quickly behind the front,
with even a few peeks of sun developing. Although the colder air
aloft with any heating seems sufficient enough to generate a
return to partly to mostly cloudy skies. But it will turn quite
windy behind the front, and the Wind Advisory issued yesterday
for most of MA was maintained with this forecast. Point forecast
soundings off BUFKIT show a pretty well mixed atmosphere
developing by the afternoon, as an 850 mb WNW jet maximum
increases to around 40-45 kt by late afternoon for most of
Southern New England, with values around 50 kt around the higher
terrain in MA. There were enough question marks with the
developing aftn cloud cover where I wasn`t confident enough to
expand the Advisory into remaining portions of Southern New
England, but it is pretty telling that we`ll be seeing a rather
windy afternoon with 00z MAV-based wind speeds around 24-27 kt
for most of Southern New England. Expect WNW gusts increasing to
around 40 mph for most, but gusts in the 45-50 mph range still
seem reasonable for most of MA.

Overall, a pretty changeable Tuesday in store with overcast and
light east winds to start, a brief period of rain/snow showers
during the morning hours, then turning drier but quite windy as we
move into the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s early,
then falling into the mid 20s/around 30 high terrain to the 30s for
lower elevations by sundown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
400 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Chilly and windy night tonight. Wind chills in the teens above
  zero by daybreak!

* Dry weather returns for Wednesday with less gustiness, but highs
  in the mid 40s still below average for early April.

Details:

A windy and chilly night is in store tonight by early April
standards, as strong upper low moves into eastern Maine and
drives a continued tight WNW pressure gradient. There may still
be continued strong gusts (up to 50 mph) in parts of MA early,
with gusts 35-45 mph elsewhere, however gust speeds should be
gradually on the downswing as low level jet starts to weaken.
Even though the gust speeds decrease, it`s still a question if
we`ll actually lose the gusts and it still could be a rather
blustery night. 925 mb temps -8 to -10C with skies trending
toward mostly clear should favor temps dropping into the mid to
upper 20s, with sustained winds leading to wind chills in the
teens to low 20s by daybreak!

Quite a chilly start to Wednesday is in store and we may see a
second period of WNW gusts 25-30 mph early in the day, but we
expect wind speeds and gusts to begin to ease to around 10 mph
during the day along with dry weather. Given full sun and
925-850 mb temps gradually modifying late in the day, should see
highs in the mid to upper 40s (low 40s terrain).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Calm night Wednesday ahead of warming trend Thursday

* Wet and unsettled weather returns, persists through the weekend

* Low pressure exits going into Monday

Details...

Winds calm heading into the nighttime hours on Wednesday, and with
the remaining clearing across the region, radiational cooling will
drop lows into the 20s again for most (low 30s across the Cape and
Islands). The colder airmass lingers through the night before a warm
front approaches going into Thursday, shifting winds to the south.
925 mb temps go back above 0C, starting a warming trend. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s across southern New England, and these
mild highs will likely remain for the rest of the period. High
pressure sticks around for much of the day Thursday, and as it exits
the region Thursday night, rain chances return.

A trough over the Great Lakes region deepens and extends down to the
Florida Panhandle, and its low moves north along the East Coast.
This will be the main driver for rain this weekend. Timing and track
is still uncertain and has significant variance in the guidance, but
ensembles currently favor higher rainfall accumulations around 0.75"
across CT and RI. This will likely shift and amounts will likely
change as the event draws nearer.

Once this system exits the region towards the start of next week,
ridging begins to make its return, starting to clear southern New
England a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z... High Confidence.

Cold front pushes across southern New England with VFR conditions
for the western terminals and MVFR/IFR for eastern terminals. Will
have improvements to the eastern terminals between 18z-20z to
VFR. The rest of this afternoon feature low-end VFR cu between
4,000-5,000 feet. WNW winds 18 to 25 knots and gust of 30 to 40
knots.

Tonight... High Confidence.

VFR. Gusty WNW gusts 25 to 35 knots throughout the night, but will
notice gusts are lowering before sunrise.

Wednesday & Wednesday Night... High Confidence.

VFR. NW to WNW winds 8 to 12 knots with isolated gust to 20 knots
before 18z. Wind becomes light, less than 5 knots, and turns south
overnight.

BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

* Gale Warning all waters this afternoon and tonight

Through Tonight: High confidence.

Light rain/drizzle and areas of mist over the waters currently.
Although winds are light easterly and should remain so through
the morning, we expect a period of strong WNW wind gusts 35-40
kt to develop this afternoon and continue into tonight. Gusts
should start to ease up some by daybreak Wednesday. Seas build
to 5-9 ft on the outer waters, with 2-4 ft nearshore. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for all waters.

Wednesday: High confidence.

Will need SCAs for this period as gale conditions subside. May
still see WNW gusts to 25 kt Wednesday morning, with W gusts to
20 kt by afternoon. Seas gradually decrease to around 3 to 5 ft
through Wednesday, with dry weather expected.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>016-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin